Jihadist Activity in Western Mali
November 2023
Dear Readers,
Welcome to 14 North's Sahel Dispatch. This newsletter looks at jihadist activity and related security developments in Western Mali—Kayes, Koulikoro, Segou, Sikasso, Timbuktu, and Taoudenni regions—during November 2023. We focus on Western Mali because it's home to rich mineral deposits and several industrial mines, which generate the bulk of Mali's revenue. It also borders Senegal, Guinea, Mauritania, and Côte d'Ivoire, which have population centers and extensive commerce, business, and investment.
Throughout November, the security situation in western Mali remained roughly the same as in October. Jihadist activity increased in Koulikoro region, while Jihadist activity decreased in Segou and Timbuktu/Taoudenni regions. Like in October, there was little jihadist activity in Kayes and Sikasso regions.
One of the most significant developments this month occurred on 14 November, when the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and the Russian Wagner Group seized control of the northern town of Kidal. This marked the first time in a decade that Bamako held the town.
Further developments this month included MINUSMA announcing they were committed to completing their withdrawal by 31 December. The evacuation, however, continued to intensify rivalries for control of the country's north.
Jihadist groups JNIM and Islamic State both appeared to be roughly as strong as ever. However, we found little evidence to indicate whether their capabilities increased or decreased over the past month.
Regarding casualties, it was another brutal month. Mali saw at least 404 confirmed deaths throughout November. Fatalities included civilians, jihadists, FAMa soldiers, and Wagner group mercenaries. This was fewer deaths than in October. However, the number of deaths remains alarmingly high, and the safety of civilians is still at risk.
Overall, the security situation remained unstable, apart from high-profile FAMa successes, such as the seizure of Kidal. We have not seen a spike in violence elsewhere, even though FAMa and Wagner Group’s attention was in the north. Longer-term regional threats to Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, Senegal, and Mauritania remain something to watch closely.
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