Dear Readers,
We’re following the spread of jihadism from the Sahel to the northern areas of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin, often called Littoral West Africa. This is important because some predict it’s an expansion of the Sahel crisis into new areas—specifically countries with denser populations and stronger economies those in the Sahel.
This month, two armed clashes between jihadists and the defense and security forces in Benin resulted in deaths on both sides. Reflecting regional tension, Niger’s junta canceled a military agreement with Benin after accusing the latter of hosting mercenaries and supplies to launch a military intervention in Niger.
In Ghana, we’re worried about inter-communal violence in Bawku, which in September saw unidentified armed men ambush police escorting traders, resulting in at least 16 deaths. Although linked to the chieftaincy dispute between the Kusasi and Mamprusi ethnic groups, we worry because jihadists are adept at spreading their influence by co-opting local grievances like this one.
In Togo, a civilian detonated an improvised explosive device in Kpendjal while walking in a field. Togolese Prime Minister Victoire Tomégah-Dogbé appointed a new Minister of Security and Civil Protection partly responsible for countering the spread of jihadism.
In a positive development, Côte d’Ivoire experienced no jihadist incidents. Nevertheless, areas bordering Burkina Faso remain vulnerable to jihadism, especially to jihadists co-opting artisanal gold mining and livestock herding.
Right now, the security situation in these parts of the Littorals doesn’t immediately affect investment in West Africa. The growing jihadist presence in Burkina Faso and southwest Mali remains the more immediate threat. However, as the situation in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger deteriorates, the potential for jihadism expanding into the Littorals increases.
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