Nigeria Security Developments
Nigeria Security Developments
August 2023
Dear Readers,
In August, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appointed Minister of Defense Mohammed Badaru and Minister of State for Defense Bello Mattawalle. Both are former governors of Nigeria’s North-West and have no apparent experience in the security sector. We think Tinubu’s appointment of senior defense officials from the North-West means he intends to resolve the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the region.
Notwithstanding the new defense appointments, the North-East remains the epicenter of jihadist activity in the country. Despite some military victories in the region, deadly attacks on civilians persist. Borno State, the home state of Vice President Kashim Shettima, is still at the center of attacks. With a new government and service chiefs, we expect a renewed drive to combat insecurity.
We’re paying attention to state governors partnering with defense and security forces to secure their states. While the Federal Government handles security throughout Nigeria, state governors have some tools at their disposal, including funding, equipping, and providing other support to units that support defense and security forces. For example, Kaduna state in the North-West has begun planning its vigilante force, which the military endorsed, as detailed in paragraph seven. This suggests the military recognizes its limits in the North-West and needs more local support.
We also think defense and security forces will do more in North-Central Nigeria after the deadly attack in Niger State. While many bad actors are bandits focusing on cattle rustling and kidnapping, their growing weaponry, capabilities, and alliances with jihadist groups concern the Nigerian state. Military solutions in the region have included aerial attacks and special operations forces deployments; we may see a shift in strategies to counter new realities.
14 North
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