President Bola Tinubu's 60-Day Countdown

On the surface, Nigeria’s 29 May 2023 presidential inauguration ceremony was a “friendly takeover.” The slightly unsteady President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a familiar face in Nigerian politics and All Progressives Congress (APC) veteran, laid out his vision for Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and largest economy. However, observers could not help but notice Tinubu’s difficulty in getting through the speech. Most have attributed this to Tinubu’s advanced age.

Despite Tinubu’s physical challenges and the fact that he and former President Muhammadu Buhari are APC members, Tinubu made it clear during his campaign that he’d govern differently.

As the new administration settles in, political interests are vying for position and prominence. We’re seeing a mix of media leaks, statements, and retractions, with likely more to come. These activities are fairly standard during Nigerian transitions, and this transition is no different.

The Proof in the Ministerial Pudding

The clearest indication of Nigeria’s executive direction will be its ministerial cabinet. In March 2023, then-President Buhari approved a constitutional amendment requiring new presidents to submit their ministerial nominations within 60 days of taking office. For those who remember, Buhari faced criticism for delaying the submission of his list for six months. The Tinubu camp, however, seems ready to announce the ministerial list much sooner.

We expect Tinubu’s cabinet selections to include a mix of close advisors and political allies he has cultivated throughout his four-decade career. At the top of the list are likely APC governors from the northern region who played a crucial role in getting Tinubu nominated and elected. They’re expecting top stops in the new cabinet as a reward. That said, technocrats will be necessary to balance the equation, and the new president has a strong roster from which to choose.

Lagos 2.0?

During his tenure as Lagos State governor from 1999–2007, Tinubu gained recognition for appointing technocrats to prominent posts. This tactic helped Lagos transform in the early 2000s. The strategy yielded relative success on a sub-national scale, and Tinubu can now do the same for the whole country.

One potential candidate for a cabinet position is Wale Edun, the former Commissioner of Finance in Lagos State with plenty of technocratic chops. Edun, one of Tinubu’s two nominations to the Presidential Transition Council, has a lot of domestic and international experience. He recently attended the World Bank Spring meetings as part of the Nigerian delegation, which has people wondering if Tinubu might appoint Edun as Central Bank Governor. Edun agrees with Tinubu’s Keynesian stance and has the profile of previous appointees—an economist and banker trained in the United Kingdom.

In previous administrations, including during Buhari’s first term, the Ministry of Budget and National Planning operated independently from its minister. However, during his second term, Buhari integrated the ministry into the Ministry of Finance, with the minister in charge of the portfolio becoming Minister of State. We don’t think this format will continue in the Tinubu administration.

A strong candidate for the Minister of Budget and National Planning position is Ben Akabueze, the former Commissioner of Budget and National Planning in Lagos State and the current Director General of the Budget Office of the Federation. We think Akabueze’s technocratic experience in Abuja and his origins in the country’s South East, where Tinubu has few allies, make him a contender for a cabinet role.

Flies in the Ointment

Concerns surrounding Tinubu’s health and mental sharpness have made the Chief of Staff and Secretary to the Government of the Federation positions more critical. The Chief of Staff drives the administration’s agenda and oversees most presidential appointees. Buhari granted his Chief of Staff, Abba Kyari, broad powers to handle requests from ministers.

Tinubu appointed Femi “Gbaja” Gbajabiamila, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, as his Chief of Staff. Gbajabiamila has been a long-term political ally of Tinubu and hails from Lagos State, representing Surulere 1. Gbajabiamila is a Tinubu disciple through and through. He is seen as an effective administrator with strong ties to the political leadership throughout the country. We see him serving as a crucial man Friday to push the new president’s agenda.

Another contender for a federal role is House Representative for Lagos State’s Ikeja 1 federal constituency James Faleke. Faleke played a crucial role in Tinubu’s election campaign, serving as the Council Secretary and unofficial campaign manager of his Presidential Campaign Council.

Tinubu is taking over an economy that’s seen better days, with money leaks and a global shift from fossil fuels making things worse. He must assemble his cabinet swiftly to tackle Nigeria’s many problems. However, the ministerial candidates must still get past the Senate confirmation process even once nominated. With the APC holding a slim majority in the House, the resignation of either or both candidates to take on executive positions would make it harder to pass bills.

Other Nigeria news:

Tinubu has already been busy. Fuel prices have nearly tripled in the past few days after he unceremoniously ended fuel subsidies in his inauguration speech. Tinubu’s office later issued a statement clarifying that the subsidy would end by 30 June, but Nigerians have spent the week adjusting to the new normal.

Major oil marketer 11Plc (Former Mobil Oil Nigeria) has expressed optimism that the outlook for 2023 would be brighter due to positive expectations from the full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). 11Plc is also bullish on deregulating the downstream sub-sector, which will take off in June 2023. 

The African Development Bank (AfDB) rallied private sector investors and various governments to opportunities in the green growth infrastructure for sustainable development in Nigeria. The bank assessed there were great opportunities for green resource development. The stakeholders agreed that Nigeria and other African countries needed to change their mindset of only feeding global industries to become an industrialized continent that relies on renewable energy.