Sahel Dispatch – Jihadist Activity in Southwest Mali, July 2023
Welcome to Sahel Dispatch's Southwest Mali Security Newsletter. This month we dig into the jihadist incidents in southwest Mali—Kayes, Koulikoro, Segou, and Sikasso regions—during July 2023. We focus on southwest Mali because it is home to rich mineral deposits and several industrial mines, which generate the bulk of Mali's revenue. It also borders Senegal, Guinea, and Côte d'Ivoire, home to population centers and extensive commerce, business, and investment
Jihadist activity decreased this month in Kayes, Koulikoro, Segou, and Sikasso regions. The start of the rainy season in Mali contributed to the decrease in jihadist activity. We expect similar activity in levels in August.
The upcoming departure of MINUSMA—scheduled for the end of 2023—will leave a governance and security vacuum in Gao and Menaka regions and damage the local economy. We don't think the Malian government can fill the vacuum or make up for the economic losses. This space will be contested by jihadist groups and the so-called "signatory" groups—the Arab and Tuareg groups that signed the 2015 Algiers Accord. There is a significant risk of open conflict between Bamako and the signatory groups.
The coup d'état in Niger on 26 July 2023 may spell the end of Western involvement in the battle against jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel. The clear beneficiaries of this are the jihadist insurgents that operate on Nigerien soil: Islamic State Sahel Province and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) in the west, and Boko Haram and Islamic State West African Province in the east. We think the coup will further degrade the security situation in Niger and, ultimately, in Burkina Faso and Mali.
Following the coup d'état in Niger, Mali's junta, along with the junta in Burkina Faso, announced their support of the coup and warned that they would consider any intervention in Niger a declaration of war for their countries against the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This announcement came after ECOWAS issued an ultimatum calling for the release of detained President Mohamed Barzoum and reinstatement of civilian governance—or face potential consequences, including deployment of a military force.
There were 23 security incidents in the Kayes region in July, 14 fewer than in June. These included jihadist and non-jihadist incidents such as attacks, arrests, murders, robberies, and theft. Most notably, there were two jihadist attacks, five fewer than in June. One incident occurred on 26 July, when jihadists from Katiba Macina—part of the JNIM coalition—attacked a gendarmery post in Diongoga. This resulted in one gendarme's death and several motorcycles set on fire.
There were 19 security incidents in the Koulikoro region in July, 32 fewer than in June. These included jihadist and non-jihadist incidents such as intimidation, arrests, kidnappings, improvised explosive device (IED) detonations, and robberies. Jihadist incidents included 27 July Katiba Macina attacks against a forest service post, a gendarmery post in Ngolobougou, and an ambush against a FAMa unit near Nara, killing one soldier, three jihadists, and 17 civilians.
There were 17 security incidents in the Segou region in July, 14 fewer than in June. These included jihadist and non-jihadist incidents such as intimidation, arrests, kidnappings, IED detonations, and robberies. Flooding from the Niger River limited jihadists' and FAMa's ability to operate on the ground. Jihadist attacks included a 12 July Katiba Macina attack against a FAMa convoy between Sokolol and Farabougou, near the Mauritanian border, and a 24 July Katiba Macina attack against a military base in Molodo-Centre, which housed some Wagner Group contractors.
There were 44 security incidents in the Sikasso region in July, 21 fewer than in June. These included jihadist and non-jihadist incidents such as attacks, IED discoveries, arrests, kidnappings, checkpoints, and intimidation. Jihadist incidents did not include any armed attacks this month, only instances of intimidation and criminal activity.
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