Somaliland Presidential Election: What You Need to Know
On 13 November 2024, Somaliland will hold its long-delayed presidential and political party elections. Originally scheduled for 2022, these elections will see the same three candidates from 2017 facing off again: President Musa Bihi Abdi of the ruling Kulmiye party, opposition leader Abdirahman Irro of the Waddani party, and Faisal Ali Warabe from the UCID party. While these three have competed before, this year’s race is shaping up to be quite different.
The stakes are high, especially for Somaliland’s political stability and the wider region. Given the situation in neighboring areas like the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, a stable Somaliland is crucial. There’s also speculation that a new U.S. presidential administration might push to relocate military assets from Djibouti to Somaliland, with some even suggesting a new Trump-led administration could recognize Somaliland’s independence. Somaliland’s large diaspora communities in the United States, United Kingdom, and northern Europe are also highly engaged in the political process, ensuring the election’s impact will reach far beyond its borders.
A Unique Election System
Somaliland’s constitution allows only three official political parties to participate in elections, both parliamentary and presidential. This year, however, seven political associations are competing for a place on the ballot. Only the top three will become official parties, able to run in future elections. Given the frequent delays in Somaliland’s elections, however, it’s possible the next presidential race won’t happen until well after the planned 2029 date.
A Two-Person Race?
Although there are three candidates, the election is widely seen as a contest between Musa Bihi and Abdirahman Irro. Warabe, despite being a regular contender, hasn’t performed strongly in past elections and is unlikely to be a major factor this time around. However, his presence could still siphon votes from the frontrunners.
Irro’s Waddani party had a strong showing in the 2021 parliamentary elections, forming a coalition with Warabe’s UCID to secure a parliamentary majority. This was a significant blow to Musa Bihi’s Kulmiye party, which has dominated Somaliland politics for years.
Clan Dynamics and the Road to Victory
Clan loyalties play a significant role in Somaliland’s elections. In 2017, Musa Bihi won largely due to the support of a key Issaq sub-clan alliance. This year, that same sub-clan has shifted its support to Irro, making Bihi’s path to victory more challenging. Voter turnout could be low in regions dominated by non-Issaq clans, meaning the election could essentially come down to an intra-Issaq competition between the two main candidates.
Continuity or Change?
Despite the heated competition, both candidates are likely to continue Somaliland’s current approach to key issues. Whether Bihi or Irro wins, the push for international recognition, maintaining stability, and keeping non-Issaq clans from gaining ground are expected to remain at the forefront of Somaliland’s policies.
The real difference between the two candidates lies in their governing styles. Bihi, a former military officer, tends to rely on force to resolve issues, while Irro, a career diplomat, favors consensus-building. However, if elected, Irro may face pressure to prove his nationalist credentials, which could limit his ability to govern through compromise.
A High-Stakes Election for Somaliland’s Future
While the ideological differences between the candidates may not be vast, the way this election is conducted will be critical for Somaliland’s future. Accusations of fraud or a disputed result could lead to civil unrest, similar to the violent protests that followed the 2017 election. Such an outcome would harm Somaliland’s reputation for stability and could deepen the country’s political divisions.
Will the Election Be Fair?
There are concerns that Bihi might use his position as incumbent to sway the election in Kulmiye’s favor. However, there are safeguards in place. The National Electoral Commission’s Ethics Committee has already fined both Kulmiye and Waddani for violating the electoral code, and new biometric voting technology aims to prevent fraud.
With international observers on the ground and efforts to ensure a transparent process, there’s hope that the election will be free and fair—crucial for maintaining the stability Somaliland is known for in a turbulent region.
Stay tuned for updates as Somaliland heads into a critical moment in its political history.
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