Sudan - Looking Ahead to 2024
Looking ahead to 2024, we’re paying close attention to Sudan for three reasons: the severity of the conflict, its potential to spread beyond Sudan’s borders and affect the region more than it has already, and heightened tensions within the Red Sea.
As 2023 ended, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti), had the upper hand after taking Wad Madani and most of Jezira State in mid-December. The RSF now controls most of Khartoum and much of central Sudan. Dagalo attempted to legitimize himself as Sudan’s leader by traveling to Uganda and Ethiopia and meeting with senior leaders, including President Yoweri Museveni and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The trip also allowed Dagalo to blow off a planned IGAD-brokered meeting with Sovereign Council junta leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Djibouti, which would have presented the two leaders as equals.
Nevertheless, al-Burhan and the SAF control strategic areas of the country, and it will be difficult, if not impossible, for the RSF to defeat them outright. Given the absence of meaningful international and regional efforts to broker a peace deal, we expect a relative stalemate and continued fighting for the foreseeable future.
Even if the international community can broker a truce, it would not be the same as resolving the conflict. It would only pause the conflict, meaning that progress on other fronts, like democratization and investment, would be on hold. Whether a truce benefits one side over the other would depend on the circumstances.
The humanitarian situation is worsening due to continued conflict, ethnic-driven violence, the growing number of internally displaced people and refugees, and the looting of aid supplies. With an expected decrease in funding for humanitarian assistance and a lack of progress in negotiating an end to hostilities, we expect the conditions to worsen in 2024.
Sudan’s deteriorating conflict, humanitarian crisis, and terrible economy are inhospitable to foreign investment—even for the most risk-accepting investors. The biggest question for international businesses and investors is whether Sudan’s conflict will spread beyond its borders and affect opportunities throughout the region.
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