What Trump's Victory Means for Africa
With Donald Trump returning to the White House, many are asking: What does this mean for Africa? Unfortunately, the answer isn't clear. Africa barely came up during Trump's campaign, and his limited interest in the continent leaves us relying on clues from his first term and the priorities of those around him. Here's what we know so far.
A Low Priority, Again
Africa has never been a major focus for U.S. administrations, and that's unlikely to change under Trump 2.0. While the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 report offers a conservative policy roadmap, it's best seen as a guide, not a blueprint. Trump's unpredictability and tendency to sidestep advisors mean his Africa policy will likely reflect instinct rather than strategy.
One thing is clear: this administration will prioritize trade, geopolitics, and pro-business policies over traditional aid or human rights advocacy.
What to Expect
Here's what we can expect from U.S. engagement with Africa under Trump's second term:
Anti-China orientation - Likely to influence U.S. support for infrastructure and mining projects that counter China's influence.
Unorthodox approaches - Willingness to break with willingness to break with traditional American approaches to long-standing dilemmas.
Trade over aid - Expect less focus on traditional development aid and more on trade and business partnerships.
Private sector partnerships - A shift toward encouraging private investments over direct government aid.
Support for Fossil Fuels - Potential for increased investment in oil, gas, and coal infrastructure.
Counterterrorism takes a back seat - Africa may see less U.S. involvement in counterterrorism efforts.
Reduced focus on human rights and DEI - The U.S. government is likely to pay less attention to human rights advocacy, LGBTQ issues, and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI).
Shifting Alliances and Regional Impacts
We could see a closer alignment with the UAE, given its anti-Iran stance and involvement in Somaliland and Ethiopia. Trump may also shift U.S. policy in Sudan to favor Emirati interests. If he succeeds in pushing for peace in Ukraine, it could ease inflationary pressures on African economies and reduce U.S. demands for African nations to cut ties with Russia.
Business Opportunities and Risks
While counterterrorism may take a back seat, the administration's pro-business stance could open new doors for private sector partnerships. Sectors like mining, infrastructure, and energy stand to gain, especially in projects aimed at countering China, such as the Lobito and Liberty Corridors. The focus on critical minerals for supply chains could spark U.S.-backed investments in mining.
Energy is another area to watch. Trump's openness to fossil fuels could lead to increased support for pipelines, coal plants, and related projects—potentially with backing from institutions like the World Bank.
With less pressure from Washington on human rights, some companies may find it easier to operate in certain regions. However, businesses should be mindful of reputational risks, as global standards increasingly emphasize corporate responsibility.
Bottom Line
Under Trump's second term, Africa will remain a low priority, but opportunities for business—especially in mining, infrastructure, and fossil fuels—are likely to grow. At the same time, diminished U.S. engagement in security and human rights could pose challenges that businesses must navigate carefully.
14 North uses expertise, experience, and on-the-ground presence to solve complex problems and guide businesses and organizations through Sub-Saharan Africa’s emerging and frontier market spaces. To learn more, please contact us at info@14nstrategies.com or www.14nstrategies.com.